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· 5 min read · I Will Solo

A Solo Bitcoin Miner Beat the Odds. What Can We Learn From It?

A real solo Bitcoin miner found block 718,124 with about 126 TH/s. Here is what the story teaches about luck, probability, and realistic solo mining expectations.

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Solo mining is often described as a lottery. That comparison is not perfect, but it does capture the emotional reality: most miners will wait a long time, and many will never find a block at all.

But “unlikely” is not the same as “impossible”.

One of the clearest real-world examples happened in January 2022, when a small Bitcoin solo miner found a valid block with roughly 126 TH/s of hashrate through Solo CKPool. The block was 718,124, and the miner earned the full Bitcoin block subsidy of 6.25 BTC, plus transaction fees, minus the solo pool fee.

That is the kind of story that keeps solo miners interested. Not because it makes solo mining easy, but because it proves the math has two sides: the odds are brutal, yet every valid hash still has a chance.

The story: block 718,124

On January 11, 2022, Solo CKPool operator Con Kolivas reported that a miner with around 126 TH/s had solved a Bitcoin block. The story was later covered by outlets including Cointelegraph and Bitcoin Magazine.

At the time, 126 TH/s was roughly the hashrate of one strong modern ASIC miner, not an industrial mining farm. Against the full Bitcoin network, that was a tiny share of total hashrate.

And still, that miner found a block.

The reward was significant: the Bitcoin subsidy was 6.25 BTC at the time, before counting transaction fees. Reports valued the win at around hundreds of thousands of dollars depending on the BTC price used that day.

Why this was so unlikely

Bitcoin mining is probability at massive scale. A miner’s chance of finding the next block is approximately:

your hashrate ÷ total network hashrate

If your hashrate is small compared with the network, your chance per block is also small. That does not mean zero. It means you need either a lot of time, a lot of hashrate, or a lot of luck.

This is exactly what made the 126 TH/s story notable. A miner that small would normally expect to wait far longer than any practical mining plan should depend on. But probability does not schedule rewards evenly. Sometimes a miner gets lucky early. Sometimes a much larger miner waits longer than expected.

That variance is the heart of solo mining.

Solo pool does not mean normal pool mining

This story also has an important detail: the miner used Solo CKPool.

A solo pool is not the same as a traditional mining pool. In a normal pool, many miners share work and receive smaller, regular payouts. In a solo-style pool, the infrastructure helps miners submit work, but the payout remains winner-takes-most: if your worker finds the block, you receive the reward after fees. If you do not find a block, you earn nothing.

So the miner was not getting steady pool payouts. The result was still solo mining economics: rare reward, high variance, no guarantee.

What this means for your own mining

The useful lesson is not “buy one ASIC and expect a jackpot.” That would be the wrong takeaway.

The better lesson is:

  • Solo mining is mathematically difficult.
  • Small miners can still find blocks.
  • Expected value and actual outcomes are not the same thing.
  • You should calculate your odds before deciding whether the risk is acceptable.

If you are thinking about Bitcoin specifically, use the Bitcoin solo mining calculator to test your own hashrate against the current network. Try realistic numbers: one ASIC, five ASICs, or whatever you actually control.

For smaller networks, the odds can look very different. You can compare other calculators too:

Different coins have different block times, network hashrates, hardware markets, and reward profiles. A setup that is almost pure lottery on Bitcoin may have very different odds on another proof-of-work network.

The emotional trap

Stories like this are exciting because they are real. But they can also be dangerous if they hide the base rate.

For every miner who finds a surprise block, there are many miners who find nothing. That does not make solo mining pointless. It just means solo mining should be treated honestly: as a high-variance strategy, not a predictable income stream.

If you solo mine, do it with clear expectations:

  • You may earn nothing for a long time.
  • Your electricity and hardware costs continue either way.
  • A successful block is possible, but not owed.
  • The smaller your share of the network, the more luck dominates the outcome.

Difficult, not impossible

The 126 TH/s Bitcoin miner did not break the rules of probability. They simply landed on the lucky side of them.

That is the reality of solo mining. Most days, the network does not care about your patience. Most hashes lose. But every hash is still a valid attempt, and sometimes a small miner finds the block before everyone else.

So yes, solo mining is difficult. For Bitcoin, it is extremely difficult unless you control serious hashrate.

But impossible? No.

That is why the best first step is not hype. It is math. Run your numbers, understand the variance, and decide whether the chance is worth it for you.

Sources

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